By Dr. John Brademas

A big challenge facing Democrats going into the November midterms is the retirement of several prominent members of the House and Senate. Here I point to Senator Evan Bayh of my native State of Indiana. Yet the most recent analysis by Nate Silver of the polling website, FiveThirtyEight, is showing that Democrats should, with at least 55 seats, maintain their majority in the Senate.

In speaking with several current and former Members of Congress and Administration officials, I find the theme they all touched on is that key to November elections is the economy.

The economic stimulus bill passed by Congress in 2009 helped stabilize the economy and stop the loss of jobs. John Podesta, who served as White House Chief of Staff under President Clinton, suggests that President Barack Obama get out of Washington, D.C. to connect with voters and make the case that actions by government can help jobs grow.

Congressman Zack Space, Democrat of Ohio, who first won in 2006, represents a District with 16% unemployment. According to Congressman Space, his constituents are “moderate, independent and want reasonable, substantive action…. The American people want government to be responsive to their concerns. There is a sense of urgency, but a lack of progress, and people feel frustrated.”

Part of this frustration has, of course, fueled the anti-government independent Tea Party movement, which has received so much attention in the press.

Still, Democratic Congressman John Sarbanes of Maryland was optimistic and cited the success of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. The Democratic Caucus in the House is large and diverse yet the House passed the health care reform bill, the economic stimulus package, a new expanded jobs creation bill and energy legislation. Republicans in the Senate, however, have abused the rules and traditions of that chamber to block action by the Democrats there, creating a deteriorating political environment.

Writing as I am, in early March, I think it likely that the health care reform bill will pass as will a new jobs creation bill and a financial industry reform measure. Such actions will give the President and Members of Congress eight months to communicate to voters their success in tackling one of the biggest challenges facing our country – health care – while at the same time stabilizing the economy and laying the foundation for new and sustained growth. As my valued friend and former colleague, Senator Paul Sarbanes of Maryland, told me recently, there is an anti-incumbent mood in the air right now. “But”, he added, “next Fall is a long way away.”

Dr. Brademas served twenty-one years in the House of Representatives as a Democrat from Indiana and was appointed Majority Whip by Speaker Thomas P. “Tip” O’Neill. He is a president emeritus of New York University and founder of the John Brademas Center for the Study of Congress at NYU.